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Horse Racing - Guide and Strategy - Page 2

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Strategies

The challenge of betting on horses is to collect and analyze information and then make a sound judgment on what to bet on, what type of bet to place and how much. To create an opportunity to be a winner, you need to take into account three main factors, analyze them and act on your findings accordingly. These are:

  • The odds offer (Price)
  • The value of the odds (overpriced or underpriced?)
  • The type of bet (single, multiple, combination, etc.)

The odds offer has to be at least 2:1 to make it worthwhile. If necessary, choose a selection with a slightly higher risk to prop up the price.

The value of the odds must be such that the sportsbook's commission is to a minimum, if at all. Some selections get 'steamed' unnecessarily. When this happens, the 'favorite' price lengthens. Take advantage of those situations.

Three types of bets seem to stand out as a sensible combination to use because they are simple, not too difficult to win and have good winning potential: the Straight bet, the Doubles and the Future.

Horse Racing Tips

  • Bet only on horses you feel have a good chance of winning.
  • Give preference to winners. Choose a horse that has won before.
  • Avoid betting on a horse that has just moved up in class.
  • Look for value odds as much as likely winners. If you keep looking for them, you will learn to spot them fairly quickly.
  • Look for a horse that has a fair chance of winning and is not overly backed. This is usually a good value bet in the long run. On odds of say, 10:1, you need to win once in ten attempts to break even. Anything more is net profit. Horses backed heavily by touting services and computer handicappers may win more often, but are usually poor value bets.
  • When the track is slow or heavy, give preference to fast starters. Slow, muddy and heavy track conditions usually favor the horse that takes an early lead.
  • A straight bet is simple, manageable and not too difficult to win. Play it but always weigh up the odds. Avoid favorites and long shots (outsiders) too. Be selective - don't bet on anything or everything.
  • When betting straight, consider betting to win and show, or each-way, if the odds are relatively high.
  • The sportsbooks or bookmakers are very well informed and have a very long experience in determining the odds. Their starting prices are usually excellent indicators as to which horses are likely to be among the first three in a given race. Sometimes the mass of the punters will put a lot of weight and money on a horse which will then go to a false price and because of that the other prices of horses will drift in the market, that is get longer. As a result a horse shown favorite or second favorite in the early starting prices may then drop down the list as the start of the race approaches and his odds improve significantly, that is get longer. This doesn't always happen but when it does, bet on the horse that was initially favorite. It is always a good value bet and in the long run you should make a profit.
  • If a horse is heavily backed just a few minutes before the start of the race and his odds are sharply reduced, bet on it. This is a strong indication that somebody has reliable favorable information about the horse that nobody else is aware of.
  • The horses to look out for in Lightweights Handicap Races are those whose overall form shows that they are capable of winning, regardless of the class of race in which they compete. Two or more wins in the form shown in newspapers are often indication of a possible big win by a low weight. An added bonus is they usually start at big prices.
  • When making selections, always give preference to a horse that ran recently. A horse that has not raced for several weeks may have suffered some setbacks like an injury or an illness. No matter how good his form was if it is not recent, chances are the horse will not win.
  • Give an extra point to an experienced jockey on longer distance races (over a mile). A jockey's ability assumes greater importance as the distance increases. Most apprentices are capable to break a horse fast, which is very good in sprint races, and the majority of their wins are usually accomplished under such circumstances. However, in route races (distance of longer than 1-1/8 miles) they usually do not fare as well. This is not necessarily because they are lacking in basic ability but because they are lacking in the experience needed to properly gauge the pace of a race. An experienced jockey can enable a front-running sprinter to perform as well in route races.
  • Also, give an extra point to an experienced jockey on hurdle racing than on flat racing. A jockey's ability becomes even more important in hurdle racing because no matter how fast the horse is if the jockey falls off or the horse pulls up, the race for that horse is over. There is not even a possible second or third place.
  • It is best not to replay your winnings, at least not immediately. If you want to be in control, you must put back in your pocket some or most of your winnings.
  • Do your homework before signing up to an online sportsbook. Four important things you should look for in a sportsbook: Are they members of a known Gambling Association? How quick do they pay out? How accessible is their customer service?

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